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Lobi Stars vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
12/6/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 12Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Lobi Stars65%
×Draw23%
Gombe United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.67
Gombe United
0.55

Lobi Stars creates 204% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 58 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
Gombe United
1.88

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
88%
Lobi Stars or Gombe United
77%
Draw or Gombe United
35%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
37%
Gombe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
81%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
50%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
23%
Gombe United 1+ goals
42%
Gombe United 2+ goals
11%
Gombe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
85%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
65%
level
23%
Gombe United scores more
12%

Lobi Stars at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Lobi Stars 1–0 Gombe United

Lobi Stars beat Gombe United 1-0 in NPFL on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.