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Golling vs ASV Salzburg — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Golling
Golling
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
ASV Salzburg
ASV Salzburg
10/26/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 13Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Golling60%
×Draw19%
ASV Salzburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golling
2.50
ASV Salzburg
1.46

Golling creates 71% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 28 away

creates per match

Golling
2.20
ASV Salzburg
0.96

allows per match

Golling
1.96
ASV Salzburg
2.79

finishing

Golling+0.00on par
ASV Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

ASV Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Golling or draw
78%
Golling or ASV Salzburg
81%
Draw or ASV Salzburg
40%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+
39%
ASV Salzburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals
92%
Golling 2+ goals
71%
Golling 3+ goals
45%
ASV Salzburg 1+ goals
77%
ASV Salzburg 2+ goals
43%
ASV Salzburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)
73%
ASV Salzburg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

ASV Salzburg away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + ASV Salzburg defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.50

ASV Salzburg attack 0.96 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Golling scores more
60%
level
19%
ASV Salzburg scores more
22%

Golling at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Golling vs ASV Salzburg

Golling and ASV Salzburg drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golling in Golling.