ASV Salzburg 4–0 Golling: Result & Stats

ASV Salzburg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Golling

5/28/2025

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 28Toni-Kronreif-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

ASV Salzburg36%

×Draw22%

Golling42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASV SalzburgExpected goals in this matchGolling

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.93

ASV Salzburg

1.76

Golling

1.93

Golling creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 56 away

1.21

creates per match

1.50

2.36

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

ASV Salzburg

1.21

Golling

1.50

allows per match

ASV Salzburg

2.36

Golling

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASV Salzburg+0.00on par

Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Salzburg ↓

Golling →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

ASV Salzburg or draw

58%

ASV Salzburg or Golling

78%

Draw or Golling

64%

Winning margin

ASV Salzburg wins by 2+

18%

Golling wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

ASV Salzburg 1+ goals

83%

ASV Salzburg 2+ goals

52%

ASV Salzburg 3+ goals

26%

Golling 1+ goals

85%

Golling 2+ goals

57%

Golling 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

ASV Salzburg (draw refunded)

46%

Golling (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Salzburg at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Salzburg attack 1.21 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.76

Golling attack 1.50 + ASV Salzburg defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASV Salzburg scores more

36%

level

22%

Golling scores more

42%

Golling at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff