Gold Coast United 1–4 Eastern Suburbs

Gold Coast United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Eastern Suburbs

N. Panetta 1'

B. Holliday 86', 59'

L. Cant 69'

S. Neville 54'

5/4/2025

Queensland NPL · Round 9Coplick Family Sports Park Tallebudgera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gold Coast United45%

×Draw22%

Eastern Suburbs32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold Coast UnitedExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.59

Gold Coast United

1.91

Eastern Suburbs

1.59

Gold Coast United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 78 away

1.52

creates per match

1.77

1.41

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Gold Coast United

1.52

Eastern Suburbs

1.77

allows per match

Gold Coast United

1.41

Eastern Suburbs

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gold Coast United+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast United ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gold Coast United or draw

68%

Gold Coast United or Eastern Suburbs

78%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

55%

Winning margin

Gold Coast United wins by 2+

25%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gold Coast United 1+ goals

85%

Gold Coast United 2+ goals

57%

Gold Coast United 3+ goals

30%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

80%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

47%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast United (draw refunded)

58%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast United attack 1.52 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Gold Coast United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gold Coast United scores more

45%

level

22%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

32%

Gold Coast United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gold Coast United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

N. Panetta

54'

S. Neville

59'

B. Holliday

69'

L. Cant

86'

B. Holliday

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff