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Eastern Suburbs vs Gold Coast United — Queensland NPL 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Gold Coast United
Gold Coast United
O. Lopez 90+2'
M. Ridenton 45', 25'
B. Doolan 42'
Han Eui-Gwon 35'
F. Hills 56'
8/15/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 21Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Eastern Suburbs39%
×Draw22%
Gold Coast United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
1.83
Gold Coast United
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 86 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.78
Gold Coast United
1.50

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.14
Gold Coast United
1.88

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
Gold Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Gold Coast United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
61%
Eastern Suburbs or Gold Coast United
78%
Draw or Gold Coast United
61%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
21%
Gold Coast United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
84%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
54%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
28%
Gold Coast United 1+ goals
84%
Gold Coast United 2+ goals
54%
Gold Coast United 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
50%
Gold Coast United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.14 · 78 matches

Gold Coast United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.78 + Gold Coast United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Gold Coast United attack 1.50 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
39%
level
22%
Gold Coast United scores more
39%

Eastern Suburbs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Ridenton
35'
Han Eui-Gwon
42'
B. Doolan
45'
M. Ridenton
56'
F. Hills
90+2'
O. Lopez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastern Suburbs vs Gold Coast United

Eastern Suburbs beat Gold Coast United 4-1 in Queensland NPL on August 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Ridenton (25', 45'), Han Eui-Gwon (35'), B. Doolan (42'), F. Hills (56'), O. Lopez (90+2').

The match was played at Heath Park in Brisbane.