Gimnasia Y Tiro 3–2 Deportivo Maipu: Result & Stats

Gimnasia Y Tiro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Maipu

P. Saucedo 87'

L. Zárate 22', 19'

F. Redondo 48'

S. Coria 17'

4/10/2014

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 6Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro54%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Maipu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia Y TiroExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maipu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.80

Gimnasia Y Tiro

1.49

Deportivo Maipu

0.80

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 86% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 38 away

1.66

creates per match

0.87

0.74

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro

1.66

Deportivo Maipu

0.87

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro

0.74

Deportivo Maipu

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Deportivo Maipu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw

80%

Gimnasia Y Tiro or Deportivo Maipu

74%

Draw or Deportivo Maipu

46%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+

27%

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals

77%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals

44%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.74 · 73 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.66 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.87 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more

54%

level

26%

Deportivo Maipu scores more

20%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

19'

22'

48'

60'

C. Besel← F. Vazzoler

71'

R. Villarreal← M. Guglielmi

78'

J. Suraci← S. Coria

81'

A. Azzaroni← A. Aguirre

87'

P. Saucedo

90'

T. Basualdo← H. López

Gimnasia

Deportivo

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

60'▲C. Besel←▼F. Vazzoler

71'▲R. Villarreal←▼M. Guglielmi

90'▲T. Basualdo←▼H. López

Gimnasia Y Tiro substitutes

BeselVillarrealBasualdo

78'▲J. Suraci←▼S. Coria

81'▲A. Azzaroni←▼A. Aguirre

Deportivo Maipu substitutes

SuraciAzzaroni