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Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipuadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
D. Giménez 28'
L. Caballero 10'
6/9/2013Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 4th Phase - Quarter-finalsEstadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Deportivo Maipu51%
×Draw30%
Gimnasia Y Tiro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.25
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.64

Deportivo Maipu creates 95% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 70 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.36
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.66

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.61
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.13

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
81%
Deportivo Maipu or Gimnasia Y Tiro
70%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
24%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
13%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
47%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
14%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
73%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.61 · 36 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.36 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.66 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
51%
level
30%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
19%

Deportivo Maipu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Caballero
28'
D. Giménez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Maipu 2–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Deportivo Maipu beat Gimnasia Y Tiro 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 9, 2013.

Goals: L. Caballero (10'), D. Giménez (28').

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti.