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Gold Coast Knights vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland NPL 2026

Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
T. Kaneko 88'
T. Cobb 33'
M. Ridenton 25'
8/9/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 20Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gold Coast Knights57%
×Draw20%
Eastern Suburbs23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gold Coast Knights
2.27
Eastern Suburbs
1.41

Gold Coast Knights creates 61% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 78 away

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights
2.25
Eastern Suburbs
1.77

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights
1.04
Eastern Suburbs
2.29

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw
77%
Gold Coast Knights or Eastern Suburbs
80%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
43%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
35%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
90%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
66%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
39%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
76%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
41%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
71%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.25 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more
57%
level
20%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
23%

Gold Coast Knights at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Ridenton
33'
T. Cobb
88'
T. Kaneko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gold Coast Knights 2 – 1 Eastern Suburbs

Gold Coast Knights beat Eastern Suburbs 2-1 in Queensland NPL on August 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Ridenton (25'), T. Cobb (33'), T. Kaneko (88').

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.