Gold Coast Knights 5–1 Eastern Suburbs

Gold Coast Knights

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Eastern Suburbs

C. Mladenis 88'

A. Poljak 63'

M. Brown 52', 42'

G. Debele 17'

D. Cuba 22'

6/11/2023

Queensland NPL · Round 13Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gold Coast Knights57%

×Draw20%

Eastern Suburbs23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold Coast KnightsExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.41

Gold Coast Knights

2.27

Eastern Suburbs

1.41

Gold Coast Knights creates 61% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 78 away

2.25

creates per match

1.77

1.04

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights

2.25

Eastern Suburbs

1.77

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights

1.04

Eastern Suburbs

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw

77%

Gold Coast Knights or Eastern Suburbs

80%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

43%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+

35%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals

90%

Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals

66%

Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals

39%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

76%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

41%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)

71%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.25 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more

57%

level

20%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

23%

Gold Coast Knights at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

G. Debele↳ A. Poljak

22'

D. Cuba↳ E. Martinez

42'

M. Brown↳ J. Walker

52'

M. Brown↳ M. King

56'

A. Simmons← B. Sutomo

63'

A. Poljak↳ M. Brown

64'

J. Mudnić← S. Dais

64'

L. Beckwith← T. Martin

69'

B. McMorrow← G. Debele

71'

J. Davies← J. McInally

79'

C. Mladenis← M. Brown

79'

K. Brymora← A. Poljak

88'

C. Mladenis↳ J. Mudnić

Gold

Eastern

9

Flemingto

1

Damsma

15

Barnett

10

A

Martinez

22

Velardo

7

Frost

4

▼

McInally

18

▼

Sutomo

5

Cuschieri

21

⚽

26

1

14

3

2

A

Walker

12

▼

Dais

5

Ludwik

4

▼

Martin

10

⚽2A

▼

Brown

17

⚽

▼

Debele

22

A

King

15

⚽A

▼

Poljak

Manager: S. McDonald

64'▲J. Mudnić←▼S. Dais

64'▲L. Beckwith←▼T. Martin

69'▲B. McMorrow←▼G. Debele

79'▲C. Mladenis←▼M. Brown

79'▲K. Brymora←▼A. Poljak

Gold Coast Knights substitutes

19Mudnić18Beckwith11McMorrow13Mladenis9Brymora20Chaglasian

Manager: M. Chandler

56'▲A. Simmons←▼B. Sutomo

71'▲J. Davies←▼J. McInally

Eastern Suburbs substitutes

11Simmons2Davies17Marano3Nadium12Gioffre20Wells