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Gol Gohar vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
11/1/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gol Gohar42%
×Draw30%
Foolad FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.18
Foolad FC
0.91

Gol Gohar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 116 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
72%
Gol Gohar or Foolad FC
70%
Draw or Foolad FC
58%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
18%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
69%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
33%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
12%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
60%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
23%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
60%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
42%
level
30%
Foolad FC scores more
28%

Gol Gohar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gol Gohar vs Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Gol Gohar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex in Sirjan.