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Foolad FC vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
4/4/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Foolad FC38%
×Draw33%
Gol Gohar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
0.97
Gol Gohar
0.81

Foolad FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 101 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Gol Gohar
0.88

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Gol Gohar
0.91

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
71%
Foolad FC or Gol Gohar
67%
Draw or Gol Gohar
62%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
14%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
62%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
25%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
7%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
56%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
19%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
57%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Foolad FC scores more
38%
level
33%
Gol Gohar scores more
29%

Foolad FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foolad FC vs Gol Gohar

Foolad FC and Gol Gohar drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.