Gol Gohar 1–1 Baderan Tehran: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

1 – 1

Baderan Tehran

11/25/2018

Azadegan League · Round 14Gol Gohar Sport Complex (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gol Gohar47%

×Draw27%

Baderan Tehran26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchBaderan Tehran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.97

Gol Gohar

1.39

Baderan Tehran

0.97

Gol Gohar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

1.67

creates per match

1.22

0.73

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.67

Baderan Tehran

1.22

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.73

Baderan Tehran

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Baderan Tehran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

74%

Gol Gohar or Baderan Tehran

73%

Draw or Baderan Tehran

53%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

22%

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

75%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

40%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

16%

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

62%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

25%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

64%

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.67 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Gol Gohar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

47%

level

27%

Baderan Tehran scores more

26%

Gol Gohar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff