Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baderan Tehran vs Gol Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
0 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
4/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Ghadir Tehran Stadium (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Baderan Tehran35%
×Draw28%
Gol Gohar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.14
Gol Gohar
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Gol Gohar
1.50

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Gol Gohar
1.00

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
63%
Baderan Tehran or Gol Gohar
72%
Draw or Gol Gohar
65%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
14%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
68%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
32%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
11%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
70%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
33%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
48%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Gol Gohar attack 1.50 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
35%
level
28%
Gol Gohar scores more
37%

Gol Gohar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Gol Gohar

Baderan Tehran and Gol Gohar drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium (Tehran).