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Goiatuba EC vs Cianorte — Serie D 2025

Goiatuba EC
Goiatuba EC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cianorte
Cianorte
Julio Vitor 90'
Alex Henrique 63'
Jhoninha 41'
B. Nimaga 39'
6/7/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Divino Garcia Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Goiatuba EC43%
×Draw31%
Cianorte26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goiatuba EC
1.12
Cianorte
0.80

Goiatuba EC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Goiatuba EC
1.24
Cianorte
0.85

allows per match

Goiatuba EC
0.76
Cianorte
1.00

finishing

Goiatuba EC+0.00on par
Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiatuba EC ↓

Cianorte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Goiatuba EC or draw
74%
Goiatuba EC or Cianorte
69%
Draw or Cianorte
57%

Winning margin

Goiatuba EC wins by 2+
18%
Cianorte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Goiatuba EC 1+ goals
67%
Goiatuba EC 2+ goals
31%
Goiatuba EC 3+ goals
10%
Cianorte 1+ goals
55%
Cianorte 2+ goals
19%
Cianorte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)
62%
Cianorte (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiatuba EC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiatuba EC attack 1.24 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cianorte attack 0.85 + Goiatuba EC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goiatuba EC scores more
43%
level
31%
Cianorte scores more
26%

Goiatuba EC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goiatuba EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
B. Nimaga
41'
Jhoninha
63'
Alex Henrique
90'
Julio Vitor
Goiatuba
Cianorte
Augusto Fassina
Manager: Augusto Fassina
Renato Peixe
Manager: Renato Peixe

Match Recap: Goiatuba EC vs Cianorte

Goiatuba EC beat Cianorte 3-1 in Serie D on June 7, 2025.

Goals: B. Nimaga (39'), Jhoninha (41'), Alex Henrique (63'), Julio Vitor (90').

The match was played at Estádio Divino Garcia Rosa in Goiatuba.