Cianorte 2–3 Goiatuba EC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Cianorte

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Goiatuba EC

Marcio Maranhao 90'

B. Nimaga 88'

Wagner Manaus 45'

Julio Vitor 84'

Alex Henrique 8', 4'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cianorte44%

×Draw27%

Goiatuba EC29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CianorteExpected goals in this matchGoiatuba EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.05

Cianorte

1.37

Goiatuba EC

1.05

Cianorte creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.68

creates per match

1.31

0.79

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Cianorte

1.68

Goiatuba EC

1.31

allows per match

Cianorte

0.79

Goiatuba EC

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par

Goiatuba EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Goiatuba EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw

71%

Cianorte or Goiatuba EC

73%

Draw or Goiatuba EC

56%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+

21%

Goiatuba EC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals

75%

Cianorte 2+ goals

40%

Cianorte 3+ goals

16%

Goiatuba EC 1+ goals

65%

Goiatuba EC 2+ goals

28%

Goiatuba EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)

61%

Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Goiatuba EC away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.68 + Goiatuba EC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.37

Goiatuba EC attack 1.31 + Cianorte defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cianorte scores more

44%

level

27%

Goiatuba EC scores more

29%

Cianorte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

8'

45'

84'

88'

90+8'

90'

Marcio Maranhao

Cianorte

Goiatuba

⚽2

⚽

⚽

Manager: Renato Peixe

Cianorte substitutes

SchulzPeuIvoTiteTiepoAislanGustavoDanrleyPortelMalthusRamomArthur

Manager: Augusto Fassina

Goiatuba EC substitutes

VitorFagnerNunesBernardoSalesJeanCristovãoGabrielLucasMarcos

Serie D: Cianorte 2–3 Goiatuba EC

Goiatuba EC beat Cianorte 3-2 in Serie D on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Alex Henrique (4', 8'), Wagner Manaus (45'), Julio Vitor (84'), B. Nimaga (88'), Marcio Maranhao (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay in Cianorte, Paraná.

Cianorte vs Goiatuba EC — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Cianorte 2–3 Goiatuba EC