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Goias vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
E. Garcia 90'
Jaja 78', 17'
David Miguel 50'
7/19/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 17Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Goias42%
×Draw31%
Cuiaba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.10
Cuiaba
0.82

Goias creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Goias
1.39
Cuiaba
0.71

allows per match

Goias
0.94
Cuiaba
0.82

finishing

Goias-0.13scores less
Cuiaba-0.09on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Goias or draw
73%
Goias or Cuiaba
69%
Draw or Cuiaba
58%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
17%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
67%
Goias 2+ goals
30%
Goias 3+ goals
10%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
56%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
20%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
61%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.94 · 19 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.39 + Cuiaba defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cuiaba attack 0.71 + Goias defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Goias scores more
42%
level
31%
Cuiaba scores more
27%

Goias at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
JajaGoiasGoias · F
8.7

Match Events

17'
Jaja↳ Tadeu
22'
Guilherme Mariano← Alan Empereur
26'
Max
45+3'
Willean Lepo
45+1'
Max
45+1'
Max
46'
David Miguel← Lucas Mineiro
50'
David Miguel
60'
Pedrinho
63'
Moraes← Willean Lepo
63'
E. Garcia← Pedrinho
63'
Victor Barbara← Carlos Alberto
66'
Tadeu
72'
Martin Benitez← Messias
76'
Edu← Alisson Safira
78'
Jaja↳ Titi
82'
Mateusinho
88'
Marcao Silva← Wellington Rato
88'
Ze Hugo← Jaja
90+6'
Esli García
90'
E. Garcia↳ Tadeu

Possession

62%Goias

Shots

14Goias

Pass accuracy

53%Goias

Statistics

GoiasCuiaba
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots7
1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.83
2Corners5
15Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots7
4On Target3
6Off Target4
4Blocked0
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
393Total Passes248
335Accurate Passes183
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls9
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Goias vs Cuiaba

Goias beat Cuiaba 3-1 in Serie B on July 19, 2025.

Goals: Jaja (17', 78'), David Miguel (50'), E. Garcia (90').

Goias controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio da Serrinha in Goiania.