Cuiaba 0–1 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Goias

Rafael Gava 44'

11/8/2025

Serie B · Round 36Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Cuiaba45%

×Draw26%

Goias29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Cuiaba

1.50

Goias

1.16

Cuiaba creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.54

Goias

1.22

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.10

Goias

1.45

-0.75scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Cuiaba-0.75scores less

Goias-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

71%

Cuiaba or Goias

74%

Draw or Goias

55%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

22%

Goias wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

78%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

44%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

19%

Goias 1+ goals

69%

Goias 2+ goals

32%

Goias 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

61%

Goias (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Goias away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.54 + Goias defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Goias attack 1.22 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cuiaba scores more

45%

level

26%

Goias scores more

29%

Cuiaba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Tadeu

Goias · G

8.2

Match Events

44'

Rafael Gava

46'

Alisson Safira← Marcelo Henrique

46'

Juan Christian← A. Martinez

46'

Brayann← Anselmo Ramon

61'

Pedrinho← Jaja

62'

Nathan Cruz← Carlos Alberto

62'

Murillo Camara← Anthony

63'

Victor Barbara← Matheusinho

67'

David

77'

Gabriel Mineiro← Nathan Pelae

77'

Baldoria← Rafael Gava

80'

Fabio← Willean Lepo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaGoias

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots10

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.96

5Corners1

18Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots10

4On Target3

12Off Target4

6Blocked3

16Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

555Total Passes339

494Accurate Passes259

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides0

Cuiaba 0 – 1 Goias

Goias beat Cuiaba 1-0 in Serie B on November 8, 2025.

Goals: Rafael Gava (44').

Cuiaba controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá.

Cuiaba vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Cuiaba 0 – 1 Goias