Goiás U20 2–0 Aparecida EC U20: Result & Stats

Goiás U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aparecida EC U20

5/11/2024

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Edmo Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Goiás U2061%

×Draw22%

Aparecida EC U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goiás U20Expected goals in this matchAparecida EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.83

Goiás U20

1.85

Aparecida EC U20

0.83

Goiás U20 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Goiás U20

2.00

Aparecida EC U20

0.86

allows per match

Goiás U20

0.81

Aparecida EC U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goiás U20+0.00on par

Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiás U20 ↓

Aparecida EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Goiás U20 or draw

84%

Goiás U20 or Aparecida EC U20

78%

Draw or Aparecida EC U20

39%

Winning margin

Goiás U20 wins by 2+

36%

Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Goiás U20 1+ goals

84%

Goiás U20 2+ goals

55%

Goiás U20 3+ goals

28%

Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals

56%

Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals

20%

Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Goiás U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiás U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Aparecida EC U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiás U20 attack 2.00 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Aparecida EC U20 attack 0.86 + Goiás U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Goiás U20 scores more

61%

level

22%

Aparecida EC U20 scores more

16%

Goiás U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Goiás U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff