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Aparecida EC U20 vs Goiás U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Aparecida EC U20
Aparecida EC U20advanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goiás U20
Goiás U20
5/18/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · Quarter-finalsCentro de Treinamento Sussumo Taia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aparecida EC U2035%
×Draw27%
Goiás U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecida EC U20
1.20
Goiás U20
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aparecida EC U20
1.29
Goiás U20
1.79

allows per match

Aparecida EC U20
0.71
Goiás U20
1.11

finishing

Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par
Goiás U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecida EC U20 ↓

Goiás U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aparecida EC U20 or draw
62%
Aparecida EC U20 or Goiás U20
73%
Draw or Goiás U20
65%

Winning margin

Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+
15%
Goiás U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals
70%
Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals
34%
Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals
12%
Goiás U20 1+ goals
71%
Goiás U20 2+ goals
36%
Goiás U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Goiás U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecida EC U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Goiás U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecida EC U20 attack 1.29 + Goiás U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Goiás U20 attack 1.79 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aparecida EC U20 scores more
35%
level
27%
Goiás U20 scores more
38%

Goiás U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Goiás U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aparecida EC U20 vs Goiás U20

Aparecida EC U20 beat Goiás U20 2-0 in Goiano U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Sussumo Taia in Goiânia, Goiás.