Godoy Cruz 2–0 Sportivo Luqueno: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Luqueno

L. Pascual 90'

M. Mendoza 29'

4/9/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Godoy Cruz48%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Luqueno27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchSportivo Luqueno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.07

Godoy Cruz

1.53

Sportivo Luqueno

1.07

Godoy Cruz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.50

Sportivo Luqueno

0.89

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.25

Sportivo Luqueno

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.00on par

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

73%

Godoy Cruz or Sportivo Luqueno

74%

Draw or Sportivo Luqueno

52%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

24%

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

78%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

45%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

20%

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

66%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

64%

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.50 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sportivo Luqueno attack 0.89 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

48%

level

26%

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

27%

Godoy Cruz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

N. Fernandez

Godoy Cruz · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

M. Mendoza↳ N. Fernandez

31'

32'

46'

46'

61'

61'

W. Ayala← E. Vera

72'

Juan Meli

74'

L. Pascual← N. Fernandez

74'

L. Arce← L. Jara

81'

B. Leyes← S. Andino

81'

K. Parzajuk← L. Dupuy

84'

G. Hauche← R. D. Rios

85'

Walter González

90+4'

Luciano Pascual

90'

L. Pascual↳ V. Poggi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GodoySportivo

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots16

7Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target3

7Off Target7

2Blocked6

11Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

308Total Passes270

224Accurate Passes199

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3