Godoy Cruz 0–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

2/23/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Godoy Cruz54%

×Draw28%

Colo Colo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.70

Godoy Cruz

1.40

Colo Colo

0.70

Godoy Cruz creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.79

0.60

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.00

Colo Colo

0.79

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

0.60

Colo Colo

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

81%

Godoy Cruz or Colo Colo

72%

Draw or Colo Colo

46%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

27%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

75%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

41%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

17%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

50%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

16%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

74%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.00 + Colo Colo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Colo Colo attack 0.79 + Godoy Cruz defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

54%

level

28%

Colo Colo scores more

19%

Godoy Cruz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff