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Colo Colo vs Godoy Cruz — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Godoy Cruz
Godoy Cruz
3/1/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Colo Colo50%
×Draw31%
Godoy Cruz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.17
Godoy Cruz
0.61

Colo Colo creates 92% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.94
Godoy Cruz
0.40

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.83
Godoy Cruz
1.40

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Godoy Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Godoy Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
81%
Colo Colo or Godoy Cruz
69%
Draw or Godoy Cruz
50%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
22%
Godoy Cruz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
69%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
33%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
11%
Godoy Cruz 1+ goals
46%
Godoy Cruz 2+ goals
13%
Godoy Cruz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
72%
Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.94 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Godoy Cruz attack 0.40 + Colo Colo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colo Colo scores more
50%
level
31%
Godoy Cruz scores more
19%

Colo Colo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colo Colo vs Godoy Cruz

Colo Colo and Godoy Cruz drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.