Godoy Cruz 1–1 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

Godoy Cruz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Tucuman

N. Fernández 24'

M. Estigarribia 46'

11/1/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Godoy Cruz41%

×Draw28%

Atletico Tucuman31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Godoy CruzExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Godoy Cruz

1.30

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

Godoy Cruz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.18

creates per match

1.11

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Godoy Cruz

1.18

Atletico Tucuman

1.11

allows per match

Godoy Cruz

1.10

Atletico Tucuman

1.42

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

Godoy Cruz+0.15scores more

Atletico Tucuman-0.55scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Godoy Cruz ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Godoy Cruz or draw

69%

Godoy Cruz or Atletico Tucuman

72%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

59%

Winning margin

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

73%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

37%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

30%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

57%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Godoy Cruz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Godoy Cruz attack 1.18 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.11 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Godoy Cruz scores more

41%

level

28%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

31%

Godoy Cruz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Godoy Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

B. Leyes

Godoy Cruz · M

7.7

Match Events

24'

N. Fernández↳ S. Andino

46'

M. Estigarribia

64'

G. Ferrari

67'

N. Romero← M. Brandán

72'

G. Acosta

76'

G. Moreyra← B. Leyes

76'

C. Valverde← D. Barrea

82'

F. Nicola← M. Estigarribia

83'

N. Castro← G. Acosta

83'

T. Castro Ponce← R. Tesuri

85'

M. Pino← S. Rodríguez

85'

M. Mendoza← G. Abrego

90+1'

R. Melo← A. Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GodoyAtletico

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots8

2.20Expected Goals (xG)0.99

4Corners4

9Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

324Total Passes315

227Accurate Passes215

70%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.75Goals Prevented0.75

Discipline

9Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5