Atletico Tucuman 2–1 Godoy Cruz: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Godoy Cruz

M. Ortiz 68'

J. Moran 19' (OG)

S. Andino 80'

11/10/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Tucuman48%

×Draw28%

Godoy Cruz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchGodoy Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.84

Atletico Tucuman

1.31

Godoy Cruz

0.84

Atletico Tucuman creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

0.84

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.36

Godoy Cruz

0.85

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.84

Godoy Cruz

1.25

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par

Godoy Cruz+0.05on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Godoy Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

76%

Atletico Tucuman or Godoy Cruz

72%

Draw or Godoy Cruz

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

22%

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

57%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

21%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

67%

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Godoy Cruz attack 0.85 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

48%

level

28%

Godoy Cruz scores more

24%

Atletico Tucuman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Ortiz

Atletico Tucuman · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

L. Diaz

19'

J. MoranOwn goal

32'

49'

63'

63'

63'

63'

68'

68'

76'

L. Godoy← N. Lamendola

76'

G. Abeldano← R. Ruiz

77'

S. Ulariaga← A. Auzmendi

77'

T. A. Pozzo← P. Fernandez

80'

S. Andino

85'

C. Auzqui

88'

L. Vallejo← G. Acosta

90+4'

T. A. Pozzo

90+1'

M. Sosa← F. Altamira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoGodoy

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots13

0.23Expected Goals (xG)1.30

2Corners7

15Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots13

1On Target2

4Off Target6

0Blocked5

3Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

28%Possession72%

180Total Passes449

103Accurate Passes368

57%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-1.46Goals Prevented-1.46

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1