Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
L. Piszczek 90+5'
K. Kiklaisz 27'
E. Pieczarka 40'
5/6/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój48%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.53
Chrobry Głogów II
1.06

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 44% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
74%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Chrobry Głogów II
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
52%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
24%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
78%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
45%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
20%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
65%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
29%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
65%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
48%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
26%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
K. Kiklaisz
40'
E. Pieczarka
90+5'
L. Piszczek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Chrobry Głogów II

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: K. Kiklaisz (27'), E. Pieczarka (40'), L. Piszczek (90+5').

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.