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Chrobry Głogów II vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
A. Danch 63'
10/1/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II28%
×Draw22%
Goczałkowice Zdrój50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.42
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.94

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
50%
Chrobry Głogów II or Goczałkowice Zdrój
78%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
72%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
13%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
76%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
41%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
17%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
86%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
58%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
36%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
28%
level
22%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
50%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
A. Danch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów II vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Chrobry Głogów II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 1, 2022.

Goals: A. Danch (63').

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.