Goa 4–1 Chennaiyin: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Chennaiyin

Carlos Martínez 72', 38' (pen)

B. Fernandes 45+3'

Borja Herrera 33'

R. Ali 13'

4/14/2024

Indian Super League · Round 22Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Goa56%

×Draw23%

Chennaiyin21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchChennaiyin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.02

Goa

1.81

Chennaiyin

1.02

Goa creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.70

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Goa

1.70

Chennaiyin

1.00

allows per match

Goa

1.05

Chennaiyin

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Chennaiyin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Goa or draw

79%

Goa or Chennaiyin

77%

Draw or Chennaiyin

44%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

32%

Chennaiyin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

84%

Goa 2+ goals

54%

Goa 3+ goals

27%

Chennaiyin 1+ goals

64%

Chennaiyin 2+ goals

27%

Chennaiyin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

72%

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.70 + Chennaiyin defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chennaiyin attack 1.00 + Goa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Goa scores more

56%

level

23%

Chennaiyin scores more

21%

Goa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Carlos Martínez

Goa · F

8.5

Match Events

13'

R. Ali↳ N. Meetei

33'

Borja Herrera

35'

Sachu Siby

38'

A. Jesuraj← N. Meetei

38'

Carlos MartínezPenalty

45+3'

B. Fernandes↳ N. Sadaoui

46'

P. Retre← N. Sadaoui

55'

A. Adhikari← I. Yadwad

56'

J. Murray← C. Battocchio

62'

Ryan Edwards

67'

L. D'Cunha← S. Fernandes

67'

U. Singh← B. Singh

69'

M. Rahman← R. Edwards

72'

Carlos Martínez↳ U. Singh

74'

B. Fernandes← Borja Herrera

74'

R. Fernandes← B. Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoaChennaiyin

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots9

4Corners1

8Fouls3

Shots

21Total Shots9

6On Target2

9Off Target3

6Blocked4

10Inside Box8

11Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

559Total Passes282

486Accurate Passes194

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls3

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1