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Chennaiyin vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Goa
Goa
D. Chima 79'
W. Jordán 11'
A. Sadiku 51' (pen)
U. Singh 45'
10/24/2024Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 6Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chennaiyin37%
×Draw26%
Goa37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chennaiyin
1.38
Goa
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Chennaiyin
1.36
Goa
1.30

allows per match

Chennaiyin
1.45
Goa
1.40

finishing

Chennaiyin+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennaiyin ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chennaiyin or draw
63%
Chennaiyin or Goa
74%
Draw or Goa
63%

Winning margin

Chennaiyin wins by 2+
17%
Goa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chennaiyin 1+ goals
75%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
40%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
16%
Goa 1+ goals
75%
Goa 2+ goals
40%
Goa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
50%
Goa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennaiyin at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Goa away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennaiyin attack 1.36 + Goa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Goa attack 1.30 + Chennaiyin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chennaiyin scores more
37%
level
26%
Goa scores more
37%

Chennaiyin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
A. SangwanGoaGoa · D
8.2

Match Events

11'
W. Jordán
32'
A. Sadiku← Borja Herrera
45+2'
Lalrinliana Hnamte
45'
U. Singh↳ A. Sangwan
51'
A. SadikuPenalty
59'
Elsinho← R. Edwards
59'
G. Singh← F. Choudhary
59'
V. Barretto← I. Yadwad
59'
A. Chhetri← R. Borges
67'
D. Chima← W. Jordán
68'
M. Yasir← B. Fernandes
68'
Iker Guarrotxena← D. Dražić
79'
Udanta Singh Kumam
79'
D. Chima↳ C. Shields
81'
Mandar Rao Desai
86'
Jitendra Singh← L. Hnamte

Possession

42%Chennaiyin

Shots

21Chennaiyin

Pass accuracy

47%Chennaiyin

Statistics

ChennaiyinGoa
Overview
42%Possession58%
21Total Shots15
6Corners4
13Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots15
5On Target5
8Off Target9
8Blocked1
11Inside Box11
10Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
274Total Passes387
194Accurate Passes307
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Chennaiyin vs Goa

Chennaiyin and Goa drew 2-2 in Indian Super League on October 24, 2024.

Goals: W. Jordán (11'), U. Singh (45'), A. Sadiku (51' pen), D. Chima (79').

Goa controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 21.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Chennai.