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Goa vs Bengaluru — Indian Super League 2025

Goa
Goa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bengaluru
Bengaluru
N. Bhutia 90'
S. Chhetri 3'
4/4/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 7Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Goa36%
×Draw27%
Bengaluru37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goa
1.21
Bengaluru
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Goa
1.43
Bengaluru
1.75

allows per match

Goa
0.71
Bengaluru
1.00

finishing

Goa+0.00on par
Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Goa or draw
63%
Goa or Bengaluru
73%
Draw or Bengaluru
64%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+
15%
Bengaluru wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals
70%
Goa 2+ goals
34%
Goa 3+ goals
12%
Bengaluru 1+ goals
71%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
35%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)
49%
Bengaluru (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.43 + Bengaluru defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bengaluru attack 1.75 + Goa defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Goa scores more
36%
level
27%
Bengaluru scores more
37%

Bengaluru at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
N. BhutiaBengaluruBengaluru · D
7.6

Match Events

3'
S. Chhetri
60'
R. Fernandes← B. Singh
66'
N. Bhutia← A. Kuruniyan
66'
S. Varshneya← S. Kuziev
68'
D. Lalhlimpuia← M. Nemil
72'
L. Fanai← B. Sanchez
72'
R. Meetei← R. Singh
78'
M. Yasir← B. Fernandes
78'
H. Patre← S. Tavora
80'
M. Molla← S. Chhetri
82'
Pol Moreno
90+2'
Gurpreet Singh Sandhu
90'
Ricky Meetei Haobam
90'
N. Bhutia↳ L. Fanai

Possession

57%Goa

Shots

12Goa

Pass accuracy

53%Goa

Statistics

GoaBengaluru
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots13
1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.81
7Corners3
4Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target4
4Off Target7
5Blocked2
9Inside Box6
3Outside Box7
Passing
57%Possession43%
333Total Passes268
254Accurate Passes182
76%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Indian Super League: Goa 0–2 Bengaluru

Bengaluru beat Goa 2-0 in Indian Super League on April 4, 2026.

Goals: S. Chhetri (3'), N. Bhutia (90').

Goa controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao.