Bengaluru 2–2 Goa: Result & Stats

Bengaluru

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Goa

J. Pereyra Díaz 83'

R. Williams 71'

S. Tavora 66'

S. Jhingan 7'

12/14/2024

Indian Super League · Round 12Sree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bengaluru44%

×Draw26%

Goa29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BengaluruExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Bengaluru

1.42

Goa

1.11

Bengaluru creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.43

creates per match

1.30

0.93

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bengaluru

1.43

Goa

1.30

allows per match

Bengaluru

0.93

Goa

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw

71%

Bengaluru or Goa

74%

Draw or Goa

56%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+

21%

Goa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals

76%

Bengaluru 2+ goals

41%

Bengaluru 3+ goals

17%

Goa 1+ goals

67%

Goa 2+ goals

30%

Goa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)

60%

Goa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Goa away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.43 + Goa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Goa attack 1.30 + Bengaluru defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bengaluru scores more

44%

level

26%

Goa scores more

29%

Bengaluru at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Williams

Bengaluru · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

S. Jhingan↳ D. Dražić

43'

Sahil Tavora

44'

Harsh Patre

57'

J. Pereyra Díaz← Édgar Méndez

57'

V. Venkatesh← H. Patre

62'

Borja Herrera← D. Dražić

66'

S. Tavora

71'

R. Williams↳ V. Venkatesh

77'

Alberto Noguera← Suresh Singh

77'

C. Konsham← A. Jovanović

77'

M. Yasir← U. Singh

77'

B. Fernandes← A. Chhetri

81'

Hrithik Tiwari

82'

A. Sadiku← Iker Guarrotxena

82'

J. Gupta← A. Sangwan

83'

J. Pereyra Díaz↳ R. Singh

89'

Brison Fernandes

90+4'

Ryan Williams

90+1'

Jorge Pereyra Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BengaluruGoa

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots8

6Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target2

2Blocked3

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

471Total Passes325

366Accurate Passes212

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Bengaluru 2 – 2 Goa

Bengaluru and Goa drew 2-2 in Indian Super League on December 14, 2024.

Goals: S. Jhingan (7'), S. Tavora (66'), R. Williams (71'), J. Pereyra Díaz (83').

Bengaluru controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.

Bengaluru vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bengaluru 2 – 2 Goa