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Goa vs Bengaluru — Indian Super League 2019

Goa
Goa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bengaluru
Bengaluru
3/14/2024Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 19Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Goa46%
×Draw25%
Bengaluru29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goa
1.58
Bengaluru
1.21

Goa creates 31% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 72 away

creates per match

Goa
1.81
Bengaluru
1.28

allows per match

Goa
1.14
Bengaluru
1.36

finishing

Goa+0.00on par
Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Goa or draw
71%
Goa or Bengaluru
75%
Draw or Bengaluru
54%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+
23%
Bengaluru wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals
79%
Goa 2+ goals
47%
Goa 3+ goals
21%
Bengaluru 1+ goals
70%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
34%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)
61%
Bengaluru (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.81 + Bengaluru defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bengaluru attack 1.28 + Goa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Goa scores more
46%
level
25%
Bengaluru scores more
29%

Goa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indian Super League: Goa 2–1 Bengaluru

Goa beat Bengaluru 2-1 in Indian Super League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao.