Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Goa vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Indian Super League 2025

Goa
Goa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
R. Kharbudon 67'
J. Maclaren 55'
5/9/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 12Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Goa41%
×Draw27%
ATK Mohun Bagan32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goa
1.30
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.11

Goa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Goa
1.78
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.17

allows per match

Goa
1.06
ATK Mohun Bagan
0.83

finishing

Goa+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Goa or draw
68%
Goa or ATK Mohun Bagan
73%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
59%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+
18%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals
73%
Goa 2+ goals
37%
Goa 3+ goals
14%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
67%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
30%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)
56%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.78 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.17 + Goa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goa scores more
41%
level
27%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
32%

Goa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. BoseATK Mohun BaganATK Mohun Bagan · D
8.2

Match Events

5'
Aakash Sangwan
44'
Boris Singh
45+1'
Alberto Rodríguez
46'
M. Singh← Apuia
46'
J. Cummings← Robinho
55'
D. Tangri← A. Thapa
55'
J. Maclaren
61'
D. Lalhlimpuia← B. Singh
61'
M. Yasir← R. Fernandes
61'
R. Kharbudon← M. Nemil
67'
R. Kharbudon↳ D. Drazic
88'
N. Tamang← U. Singh
88'
A. Suryavanshi← S. Samad
88'
D. Petratos← J. Maclaren
90'
P. Gaonkar← A. Chhetri

Possession

45%Goa

Shots

9Goa

Pass accuracy

48%Goa

Statistics

GoaATK
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots21
1Corners9
11Fouls5
Shots
9Total Shots21
3On Target4
1Off Target7
5Blocked10
4Inside Box10
5Outside Box11
Passing
45%Possession55%
351Total Passes431
271Accurate Passes354
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls5
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Indian Super League: Goa 1–1 ATK Mohun Bagan

Goa and ATK Mohun Bagan drew 1-1 in Indian Super League on May 9, 2026.

Goals: J. Maclaren (55'), R. Kharbudon (67').

ATK Mohun Bagan controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao.