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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goa
Goa
G. Stewart 90+4'
B. Singh 62' (OG)
3/8/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 26Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan53%
×Draw24%
Goa23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.73
Goa
1.06

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
2.06
Goa
1.30

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
0.81
Goa
1.40

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
77%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Goa
76%
Draw or Goa
47%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
29%
Goa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
82%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
52%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
25%
Goa 1+ goals
65%
Goa 2+ goals
29%
Goa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
70%
Goa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Goa away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.06 + Goa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Goa attack 1.30 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
53%
level
24%
Goa scores more
23%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
A. KuruniyanATK Mohun BaganATK Mohun Bagan · D
7.7

Match Events

6'
Aakash Sangwan
46'
A. Sadiku← C. McHugh
50'
Ashish Rai
57'
D. Biswas← A. Rai
62'
Boris Singh
62'
B. SinghOwn goal
64'
Ashique Kuruniyan
64'
Alberto Rodríguez
72'
S. Fernandes← B. Singh
72'
M. Nemil← A. Sangwan
78'
J. Cummings← D. Petratos
78'
N. Dorjee← Odei Onaindia
78'
D. Dražić← M. Yasir
90+5'
S. Bhat← G. Stewart
90+4'
G. Stewart↳ J. Cummings

Possession

40%ATK

Shots

8ATK

Pass accuracy

47%ATK

Statistics

ATKGoa
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots12
4Corners3
16Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots12
1On Target2
3Off Target7
4Blocked3
2Inside Box5
6Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
320Total Passes475
234Accurate Passes388
73%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Indian Super League: ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 Goa

ATK Mohun Bagan beat Goa 2-0 in Indian Super League on March 8, 2025.

Goals: B. Singh (62' o.g.), G. Stewart (90+4').

Goa controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium in Kolkata.