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Goa vs Al Wahda FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Goa
Goa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
4/29/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group E - 6Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Goa8%
×Draw26%
Al Wahda FC66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goa
0.32
Al Wahda FC
1.44

Al Wahda FC creates 350% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Goa
0.00
Al Wahda FC
0.88

allows per match

Goa
2.00
Al Wahda FC
0.63

finishing

Goa+0.00on par
Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Al Wahda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–125%
0–218%
0–39%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (25%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Goa or draw
34%
Goa or Al Wahda FC
74%
Draw or Al Wahda FC
92%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+
1%
Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals
27%
Goa 2+ goals
4%
Goa 3+ goals
0%
Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
76%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
42%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)
11%
Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 0.00 + Al Wahda FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.32

Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 + Goa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Goa scores more
8%
level
26%
Al Wahda FC scores more
66%

Al Wahda FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goa vs Al Wahda FC

Al Wahda FC beat Goa 2-0 in AFC Champions League on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao, Goa.