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Al Wahda FC vs Goa — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goa
Goa
4/17/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Wahda FC45%
×Draw28%
Goa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wahda FC
1.30
Goa
0.94

Al Wahda FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Wahda FC
1.60
Goa
0.67

allows per match

Al Wahda FC
1.20
Goa
1.00

finishing

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wahda FC ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Wahda FC or draw
73%
Al Wahda FC or Goa
72%
Draw or Goa
55%

Winning margin

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
21%
Goa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
73%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
37%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
14%
Goa 1+ goals
61%
Goa 2+ goals
24%
Goa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
62%
Goa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wahda FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Goa away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wahda FC attack 1.60 + Goa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Goa attack 0.67 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Wahda FC scores more
45%
level
28%
Goa scores more
27%

Al Wahda FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Wahda FC 0 – 0 Goa

Al Wahda FC and Goa drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao, Goa.