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GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax — Eredivisie 2018

GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ajax
Ajax
9/21/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 6De Adelaarshorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

GO Ahead Eagles45%
×Draw24%
Ajax31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GO Ahead Eagles
1.66
Ajax
1.35

GO Ahead Eagles creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

GO Ahead Eagles
1.44
Ajax
1.32

allows per match

GO Ahead Eagles
1.39
Ajax
1.88

finishing

GO Ahead Eagles+0.38scores more
Ajax+0.31scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GO Ahead Eagles ↓

Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GO Ahead Eagles or draw
69%
GO Ahead Eagles or Ajax
76%
Draw or Ajax
55%

Winning margin

GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
23%
Ajax wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
81%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
49%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
23%
Ajax 1+ goals
74%
Ajax 2+ goals
39%
Ajax 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
59%
Ajax (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GO Ahead Eagles at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

Ajax away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.44 + Ajax defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ajax attack 1.32 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GO Ahead Eagles scores more
45%
level
24%
Ajax scores more
31%

GO Ahead Eagles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GO Ahead Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GO Ahead Eagles vs Ajax

GO Ahead Eagles and Ajax drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at De Adelaarshorst in Deventer.