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Ajax vs GO Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
4/4/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 28Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Ajax62%
×Draw20%
GO Ahead Eagles18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
2.17
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

Ajax creates 105% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.85
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06

allows per match

Ajax
1.06
GO Ahead Eagles
2.49

finishing

Ajax+0.03on par
GO Ahead Eagles+0.29scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

GO Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
82%
Ajax or GO Ahead Eagles
80%
Draw or GO Ahead Eagles
38%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
39%
GO Ahead Eagles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
89%
Ajax 2+ goals
64%
Ajax 3+ goals
36%
GO Ahead Eagles 1+ goals
65%
GO Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
29%
GO Ahead Eagles 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
78%
GO Ahead Eagles (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

GO Ahead Eagles away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.85 + GO Ahead Eagles defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.17

GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 + Ajax defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ajax scores more
62%
level
20%
GO Ahead Eagles scores more
18%

Ajax at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Ajax 1–1 GO Ahead Eagles

Ajax and GO Ahead Eagles drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.