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Go Ahead Eagles U21 vs ADO Den Haag II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Go Ahead Eagles U21
Go Ahead Eagles U21
FT
1 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
9/7/2024U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 6Sportpark Zuiderlaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Go Ahead Eagles U2143%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.71
ADO Den Haag II
1.47

Go Ahead Eagles U21 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

creates per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.31
ADO Den Haag II
1.36

allows per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.57
ADO Den Haag II
2.11

finishing

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Ahead Eagles U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or draw
67%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 or ADO Den Haag II
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
57%

Winning margin

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+
23%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals
82%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals
51%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals
24%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
77%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
43%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)
57%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.31 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more
43%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
33%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Go Ahead Eagles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Go Ahead Eagles U21 vs ADO Den Haag II

Go Ahead Eagles U21 and ADO Den Haag II drew 1-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuiderlaan in Twello.