ADO Den Haag II 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles U21

ADO Den Haag II

FT

1 – 1

Go Ahead Eagles U21

2/1/2025

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ADO Den Haag II46%

×Draw21%

Go Ahead Eagles U2132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchGo Ahead Eagles U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.68

ADO Den Haag II

2.04

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.68

ADO Den Haag II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 35 away

1.89

creates per match

1.43

1.93

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.89

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.43

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.93

Go Ahead Eagles U21

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Go Ahead Eagles U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

68%

ADO Den Haag II or Go Ahead Eagles U21

79%

Draw or Go Ahead Eagles U21

54%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

26%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

87%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

60%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

33%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals

81%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals

50%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

59%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Go Ahead Eagles U21 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.43 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

46%

level

21%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more

32%

ADO Den Haag II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff