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Gneist vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
J. Eide 90+2' (pen)
T. Adonaba 90', 85'
I. Johansen 61'
5/2/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist53%
×Draw18%
Fyllingsdalen28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.76
Fyllingsdalen
2.02

Gneist creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Fyllingsdalen
0.86

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Fyllingsdalen
2.86

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
72%
Gneist or Fyllingsdalen
82%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
47%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
34%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
94%
Gneist 2+ goals
76%
Gneist 3+ goals
51%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
87%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
60%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
65%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.76

Fyllingsdalen attack 0.86 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gneist scores more
53%
level
18%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
28%

Gneist at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
I. Johansen
85'
T. Adonaba
90'
T. Adonaba
90+2'
J. EidePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Gneist 3–1 Fyllingsdalen

Gneist beat Fyllingsdalen 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 2, 2026.

Goals: I. Johansen (61'), T. Adonaba (85', 90'), J. Eide (90+2' pen).