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Gneist vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
H. Brosvik Holst 43', 23'
S. Gullaksen 13'
5/8/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 6Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gneist27%
×Draw21%
Fyllingsdalen52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.48
Fyllingsdalen
2.13

Fyllingsdalen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.63
Fyllingsdalen
2.00

allows per match

Gneist
2.25
Fyllingsdalen
1.33

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
48%
Gneist or Fyllingsdalen
79%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
73%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
12%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
77%
Gneist 2+ goals
43%
Gneist 3+ goals
19%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
88%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
63%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
34%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.63 + Fyllingsdalen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.00 + Gneist defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gneist scores more
27%
level
21%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
52%

Fyllingsdalen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Gullaksen
23'
H. Brosvik Holst
37'
S. M. Haaberg
37'
S. M. Haaberg
43'
H. Brosvik Holst

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gneist vs Fyllingsdalen

Gneist beat Fyllingsdalen 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Gullaksen (13'), H. Brosvik Holst (23', 43').

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.