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Gneist vs Fana — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fana
Fana
J. Toftesund 85'
V. Byrkjeland 21'
4/5/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gneist26%
×Draw19%
Fana55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.65
Fana
2.46

Fana creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.63
Fana
2.67

allows per match

Gneist
2.25
Fana
1.67

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Fana+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Fana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
45%
Gneist or Fana
81%
Draw or Fana
74%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
12%
Fana wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
81%
Gneist 2+ goals
49%
Gneist 3+ goals
23%
Fana 1+ goals
91%
Fana 2+ goals
70%
Fana 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
32%
Fana (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Fana away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.63 + Fana defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fana attack 2.67 + Gneist defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gneist scores more
26%
level
19%
Fana scores more
55%

Fana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
V. Byrkjeland
85'
J. Toftesund

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gneist 1 – 1 Fana

Gneist and Fana drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: V. Byrkjeland (21'), J. Toftesund (85').

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.