Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fana vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Fana
Fana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gneist
Gneist
A. A. Gronhaug 72'
E. O. Moldenes 64'
J. Lygre 13'
J. Toftesund 63'
8/30/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 18Nesttun Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fana52%
×Draw20%
Gneist28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fana
2.42
Gneist
1.75

Fana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fana
2.33
Gneist
2.50

allows per match

Fana
1.00
Gneist
2.50

finishing

Fana+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fana ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Fana or draw
72%
Fana or Gneist
80%
Draw or Gneist
48%

Winning margin

Fana wins by 2+
32%
Gneist wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fana 1+ goals
91%
Fana 2+ goals
69%
Fana 3+ goals
43%
Gneist 1+ goals
83%
Gneist 2+ goals
52%
Gneist 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fana (draw refunded)
65%
Gneist (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fana at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gneist away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fana attack 2.33 + Gneist defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gneist attack 2.50 + Fana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fana scores more
52%
level
20%
Gneist scores more
28%

Fana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
J. Lygre
63'
J. Toftesund
64'
E. O. Moldenes
72'
A. A. Gronhaug

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fana vs Gneist

Fana beat Gneist 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Lygre (13'), J. Toftesund (63'), E. O. Moldenes (64'), A. A. Gronhaug (72').

The match was played at Nesttun Kunstgress in Bergen.