Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gneist vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Gneist
Gneist
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Førde
Førde
H. Brosvik Holst 78'
J. Hellevik Lie 35', 31'
T. Hallstensen 45'
V. Lorgen 22'
9/20/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Liland kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gneist35%
×Draw23%
Førde42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
1.56
Førde
1.75

Førde creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gneist
1.63
Førde
1.25

allows per match

Gneist
2.25
Førde
1.50

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
58%
Gneist or Førde
77%
Draw or Førde
65%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
17%
Førde wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
79%
Gneist 2+ goals
46%
Gneist 3+ goals
21%
Førde 1+ goals
83%
Førde 2+ goals
52%
Førde 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
45%
Førde (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Førde away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 1.63 + Førde defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Førde attack 1.25 + Gneist defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gneist scores more
35%
level
23%
Førde scores more
42%

Førde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
V. Lorgen
31'
J. Hellevik Lie
35'
J. Hellevik Lie
45'
T. Hallstensen
78'
H. Brosvik Holst

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gneist vs Førde

Gneist beat Førde 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: V. Lorgen (22'), J. Hellevik Lie (31', 35'), T. Hallstensen (45'), H. Brosvik Holst (78').

The match was played at Liland kunstgress in Bergen.