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Førde vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2025

Førde
Førde
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gneist
Gneist
V. Savland 65'
T. Hallstensen 4'
T. Adonaba 9'
5/9/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Førde60%
×Draw18%
Gneist21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
2.58
Gneist
1.50

Førde creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Førde
2.00
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Førde
1.33
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Førde or draw
79%
Førde or Gneist
82%
Draw or Gneist
40%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
40%
Gneist wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
92%
Førde 2+ goals
72%
Førde 3+ goals
47%
Gneist 1+ goals
78%
Gneist 2+ goals
44%
Gneist 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
74%
Gneist (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.00 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Gneist attack 1.67 + Førde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Førde scores more
60%
level
18%
Gneist scores more
21%

Førde at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
T. Hallstensen
9'
T. Adonaba
65'
V. Savland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Førde 2 – 1 Gneist

Førde beat Gneist 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 9, 2026.

Goals: T. Hallstensen (4'), T. Adonaba (9'), V. Savland (65').