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Gmünd vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
FT
3 – 0
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
11/9/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gmünd43%
×Draw23%
Dellach im Gailtal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.75
Dellach im Gailtal
1.54

Gmünd creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 62 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
66%
Gmünd or Dellach im Gailtal
77%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
57%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
23%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
83%
Gmünd 2+ goals
52%
Gmünd 3+ goals
25%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
79%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
45%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
56%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gmünd scores more
43%
level
23%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
34%

Gmünd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gmünd vs Dellach im Gailtal

Gmünd beat Dellach im Gailtal 3-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd in Gmünd.