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Dellach im Gailtal vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
CANC
21:00
Gmünd
Gmünd
4/25/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal58%
×Draw20%
Gmünd22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dellach im Gailtal
2.22
Gmünd
1.29

Dellach im Gailtal creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal
2.65
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal
1.45
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw
78%
Dellach im Gailtal or Gmünd
80%
Draw or Gmünd
42%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
36%
Gmünd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
89%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
65%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
38%
Gmünd 1+ goals
72%
Gmünd 2+ goals
37%
Gmünd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
73%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.22

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more
58%
level
20%
Gmünd scores more
22%

Dellach im Gailtal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dellach im Gailtal vs Gmünd — Match Preview

Dellach im Gailtal face Gmünd on April 25, 2021 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dellach im Gailtal host Gmünd at Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.