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Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W vs Farul Constanţa W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
FT
2 – 3
Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
5/11/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Jean Pădureanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W42%
×Draw20%
Farul Constanţa W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
2.23
Farul Constanţa W
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3.67
Farul Constanţa W
3.08

allows per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.18
Farul Constanţa W
0.79

finishing

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par
Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W ↓

Farul Constanţa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or draw
62%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or Farul Constanţa W
80%
Draw or Farul Constanţa W
58%

Winning margin

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
24%
Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
89%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
65%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
38%
Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
88%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
63%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
52%
Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Farul Constanţa W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 3.67 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.08 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
42%
level
20%
Farul Constanţa W scores more
38%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W vs Farul Constanţa W

Farul Constanţa W beat Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Jean Pădureanu in Bistriţa.