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Farul Constanţa W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
FT
1 – 0
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
4/18/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 7Complex Academia Gheorghe Hagi Teren 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Farul Constanţa W61%
×Draw19%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanţa W
2.33
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.25

Farul Constanţa W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W
3.31
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W
0.59
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw
80%
Farul Constanţa W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
81%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
39%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
39%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
90%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
67%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
41%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
71%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
36%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
76%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.33

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more
61%
level
19%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
20%

Farul Constanţa W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanţa W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Farul Constanţa W beat Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Complex Academia Gheorghe Hagi Teren 9 in Ovidiu.