Globo 2–1 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Globo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Acreano

Victor 79'

Max 37'

Neto 71'

5/20/2018

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Manoel Dantas Barreto (Ceara-Mirim, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Globo58%

×Draw23%

Atlético Acreano18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GloboExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.85

Globo

1.74

Atlético Acreano

0.85

Globo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

0.53

1.18

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Globo

1.35

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Globo

1.18

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Globo+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Globo ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Globo or draw

82%

Globo or Atlético Acreano

77%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

42%

Winning margin

Globo wins by 2+

33%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Globo 1+ goals

82%

Globo 2+ goals

52%

Globo 3+ goals

25%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

57%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Globo (draw refunded)

76%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Globo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Globo attack 1.35 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Globo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Globo scores more

58%

level

23%

Atlético Acreano scores more

18%

Globo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Globo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Max

46'

Alex Sandro← Negueba

46'

Januário← Alfredo

57'

Tauã← Geovani

62'

Mateus Guerreiro← Max

64'

Wilson← Leandro

68'

Ray Silva← Jean Natal

71'

Neto

79'

Victor

Globo

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Max

Romarinho

Manager: Fernando Tonet

46'▲Alex Sandro←▼Negueba

62'▲Mateus Guerreiro←▼Max

68'▲Ray Silva←▼Jean Natal

Globo substitutes

SandroGuerreiroSilvaMizaelAlexandreAndréCosmeEduardoGravatáCariocaPotiguarVanger

Manager: Alvaro

46'▲Januário←▼Alfredo

57'▲Tauã←▼Geovani

64'▲Wilson←▼Leandro

Atlético Acreano substitutes

JanuárioTauãWilsonJordãoEdivandroLeandroWillardFerroTragodaraDouglasMoraes